Zuloma·Supply ChainThe Operations Section
§ Supply Chain
On planning what we can't predict.
Notes from fourteen years inside supply-chain transformations — the tools, the failures, the slow-burning truths the demos don't show. SAP IBP, o9, Kinaxis, OMP, S&OP, careers, and the gap between forecast and reality.
Read the index ↓10 essays · ~94 min total · since 2026
Demand · Forecast vs Actual · last 24 months
Plant 04 · Rolling MAPE22018014010060
JUN '24SEPDECMAR '25JUNSEPDECMAR '26
Forecast Accuracy
71.4%
MAPE
28.6%
Bias
+4.2%
Service Level
94.1%
§ Featured
The piece worth your 1 minute.
01
1 min readPublished February 2026
Essay · Supply Chain
鞭效应：一次微小的需求波动如何演变成供应链混乱
消费端5%的需求增长，到了制造商那里可能变成40%的暴涨。这背后的数学原理是什么，以及真正有效的三个杠杆。
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§ All essays
Supply-chain essays.
- 01你最危险的供应商，是那个什么都还没发生的供应商SHORT · 1 MINJUL2026
- 02《o9 vs OMP vs SAP IBP》，供应商不会写的采购指南SHORT · 2 MINJUL2026
- 03生成式 AI 对供应链计划到底做了什么SHORT · 4 MINMAY2026
- 04需求感知 修不好一个没人信的预测SHORT · 1 MINMAY2026
- 05AI预测准确率这个数字在骗你SHORT · 1 MINMAY2026
- 06Agentic AI在S&OP中的应用:当智能体出错时,你该开除谁?SHORT · 3 MINMAY2026
- 07IBP 上线，第 18 个月：我们做错了什么SHORT · 2 MINAPR2026
- 08无人认领的 S&OP 会议SHORT · 2 MINMAR2026
- 09鞭效应：一次微小的需求波动如何演变成供应链混乱SHORT · 1 MINFEB2026
- 10SAP IBP、o9、Kinaxis — 演示没有告诉你的事SHORT · 1 MINJAN2026